Momentum Commerce today announced new modeled data forecasting annual Amazon US retail sales to reach $641.3 billion in 2024, an increase of 19.9% or $106.6 billion YoY.

Momentum Commerce projects the following top-level categories to have the highest YoY growth rates on Amazon US over 2024:

1. CDs & Vinyl – Estimated 2024 Sales: $607.5 million (+29.6%)
2. Beauty & Personal Care – Estimated 2024 Sales: $36 billion (+26.0%)
3. Pet Supplies – Estimated 2024 Sales: $22.6 billion (+25.3%)

Momentum Commerce projects the following top-level categories to have the slowest YoY growth rates on Amazon US over 2024:

1. Books – Estimated 2024 Sales: $9.1 billion (+0.9%)
2. Video Games – Estimated 2024 Sales: $5.6 billion (+2.8%)
3. Handmade Products – Estimated 2024 Sales: $606.6 million (+3.0%)

Examining smaller niches nested within the top categories, notable findings from Momentum Commerce’s modeling include:

• Janitorial & Sanitation Supplies is expected to be the fastest growing subcategory on Amazon, rising 176% YoY to reach $1.6B in 2024
• While Grocery & Gourmet Food is predicted to grow by 8.9% YoY in 2024, Beverages sales are forecasted to reach $9 billion, a growth rate of 27.3%
  • In 2024, Beverage sales will capture 45% of total Grocery & Gourmet Foods revenue on Amazon US – up from 38.3% in 2023
• Women’s Jewelry is forecasted to be the most stable category on an annual basis, with $3.7 billion in 2024 sales – just 0.6% below 2023 revenue figures 

“Amazon’s overall retail growth within the US is driven primarily by the rapid expansion of sales across a number of CPG categories, rather than luxury, apparel, or electronics, and that’s going to continue over the next year,” said Andrew Waber, Director of Market Research at Momentum Commerce. “US consumers are clearly growing more comfortable and accustomed to purchasing grocery, health, and beauty products from Amazon despite emerging platforms like TikTok Shop focusing on these segments.”

All forecasted sales figures are accessible through Momentum Commerce’s new Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard. This free tool provides monthly Amazon US retail sales forecasts across hundreds of Amazon categories through the end of 2024. Revenue forecasts across thousands of deeper subcategory levels are available to Momentum Commerce’s services team and customers to further empower strategic direction and decision-making.

“During our 2024 budget planning reviews with Momentum Commerce clients, it was clear that even top brands struggled to identify the expected growth of their own category on Amazon US,” said John T Shea, CEO & Founder of Momentum Commerce. “Providing these metrics helps brands more confidently set their growth strategy, and is another step in our mission to be the most respected Amazon consultancy.”

The forecasts and estimates within the Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard are based on Momentum Commerce’s proprietary analysis and modeling, which incorporates multiple sources of Amazon US retail revenue data. Momentum Commerce regularly re-evaluates both the underlying data and models to ensure forecasts reflect seasonality, changes in observed revenue, and other factors.

For more information, please contact us at hello@momentumcommerce.com