This is the fourth in a series of category predictions using our Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard.

What is the forecasted growth for the Beauty & Personal Care category on Amazon US through 2024? How should brands in this category prepare their growth strategies? Over the next few months, we will be estimating specific categories’ 2024 revenue using our latest free tool, the Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard.

Beauty & Personal Care

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1. What is the projected growth for the Beauty & Personal Care category on Amazon US for 2024?
   • The Beauty & Personal Care category is forecasted to reach $36B in 2024 sales, up 26% year-over-year, and the highest revenue growth we’ve reported thus far in the series! We’ve seen the search volume for this category continue to rise throughout 2023, achieving a 38.6% YoY growth in search volume in January 2024. 
2. How does the growth forecast for the Beauty & Personal Care category compare to Amazon’s overall growth trajectory?
   • Amazon is forecasted to grow 19.9% in 2024, whereas Beauty & Personal Care is forecasted to grow 26% placing it ahead of the overall site’s pace. This also outpaces the Grocery & Gourmet Food, Baby Products, and Home & Kitchen expected YoY growth. 
3. What quarter will generate the highest Beauty & Personal Care category revenue?
   • Q4 is on track to bring in an impressive $10.8B, or roughly 30% of the forecasted revenue for the year. Q4 is often the biggest revenue driver for many categories across Amazon with events like the Prime Big Deal Days, Turkey 5, and other Holiday Shopping occurring in this quarter.
4. What month will generate the highest Beauty & Personal Care category revenue?
   • December is predicted to bring in $3.8B in the category. 
5. What month is projected to see the highest year-over-year growth for the category?
   • July is forecasted to have the most significant spike of +33.6% YoY. July’s Prime Day frequently boasts Beauty & Personal Care products within its ‘Lightning Deals’ 

Beauty & Personal Care > Skin Care

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1. What is the projected growth for the Skin Care subcategory on Amazon US throughout 2024?
   • The Skin Care subcategory is forecasted to reach $8.9B in 2024 sales, up 43.8% YoY. This is the highest YoY growth measured thus far in our analyses.
2. What is the forecasted pace of growth for Skin Care compared to the overall growth of Beauty & Personal Care?
   • The subcategory is projected to drive $8.9B in sales with 43.8% YoY growth compared to the 26% growth projected for Beauty & Personal Care as a whole. The subcategory is pacing far ahead of its parent category, a trend observed across other categories. 
3. What quarter is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Skin Care subcategory?
   • Similar to its parent category, Q4 is forecasted to be the highest sales quarter for Skin Care with an estimated $2.6B in revenue. 
4. What month is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Skin Care subcategory?
   • July is projected to be the biggest month, driving $952.6M in sales. 
5. Which month is projected to experience the most significant year-over-year growth for the subcategory?
   • Similar to its parent category, July will drive an impressive 57.7% YoY growth for Skin Care on Amazon US. July’s Prime Day will likely play a huge role across the category.

Beauty & Personal Care > Hair Care

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1. What is the projected growth for the Hair Care subcategory on Amazon US throughout 2024?
   • Hair Care is forecasted to reach $9.2B in 2024 sales, up 23.8% YoY.
2. What is the forecasted pace of growth for Hair Care compared to the overall growth of Beauty & Personal Care?
   • Hair Care is pacing to grow 23.8% YoY, a rate slightly behind Beauty & Personal Care at 26%.
3. What quarter is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Hair Care subcategory?
   • Q4 sales are estimated to be the highest at $2.7B. 
4. What month is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Hair Care subcategory?
   • November will be the highest revenue-driving month for this subcategory, with an estimated $914.5M in sales. 
5. Which month is projected to experience the most significant year-over-year growth for the subcategory?
   • April is forecasted to see the most significant growth YoY at 29.7%.

Methodology

All forecasted sales figures are accessible through Momentum Commerce’s new Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard. This free tool provides monthly Amazon US retail sales forecasts across hundreds of Amazon categories through the end of 2024. Revenue forecasts across thousands of deeper subcategory levels are available to Momentum Commerce’s services team and customers to further empower strategic direction and decision-making.

The forecasts and estimates within the Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard are based on Momentum Commerce’s proprietary analysis and modeling, which incorporates multiple sources of Amazon US retail revenue data. Momentum Commerce regularly re-evaluates both the underlying data and models to ensure forecasts reflect seasonality, changes in observed revenue, and other factors.

Do you have questions? Reach out to us at hello@momentumcommerce.com